THE FIGURES DON'T ADD UP

Last updated : 15 May 2005 By Editor

Denis Campbell in The Observer:

However, the Glazers must overcome many obstacles - fan opposition, suspicion from rival clubs, hostility from football's governing bodies and, particularly, the team's uninspiring recent form - before their business plan can become reality. A rival Premiership club chairman cautions: 'It's very hard to meet £2m in interest payment, much less £25m. United under Glazer could be going down a very dangerous road'.

One City analyst believes the Glazers have paid over the odds for a club that is now on the slide. 'Some of the smaller shareholders were delighted to bale out, especially at £3 a share, as they know the business faces quite a few structural problems. Without Glazer, the natural market price would probably have been £2 or £2.20,' he said.

'First Arsenal and now Chelsea have usurped their status as England's top team. The club doesn't have the money to compete with Abramovich's billions for buying players and United's relative failure in recent seasons - they have finished only third in the Premier League and gone out of the Champions League uncomfortably early for two years running - means profits are falling'.

While United chief executive David Gill recently reiterated that manager Sir Alex Ferguson had no money to bring in new signings this summer, Chelsea were compiling a list of new personnel, price-tags immaterial. While United retained its customary place at the top of the most recent Deloitte Football Money League with an impressive £171.5m turnover, rival clubs are catching up. While their income was down £3.4m year on year, Real Madrid's, in second place, was up £22.3m to £156.3m, while Chelsea, in fourth, rose by £50.6m to £143.7m.

The figures for United's sponsorship deals are certainly eye-catching: £303m over 13 years with Nike and £36m over four years with Vodafone. However Chelsea - whose chief executive Peter Kenyon used to perform the same role at Old Trafford - last month trumped United's shirt sponsorship deal with Vodafone by announcing that Samsung had agreed to pay them £55m over five years for the same privilege.

United's most recent accounts confirmed that they may have peaked as a money-making operation. For the year to July 2004, profits were down from £29.8m to £19.4m on a slightly reduced turnover of £169.1m, while the six-monthly figures to the end of January 2005 showed that while turnover stagnated, costs rose by 19.7 per cent. Alarmingly, while match-day revenues were up, commercial income grew by just 2 per cent and media income fell from £33.4m to £24.2m - the price of relative failure in the Premiership and Champions League. The City analyst adds: 'Shareholders in United know that the next year or two could see even worse figures, and fear that there is no reason to believe that the team will automatically start winning things again. In such circumstances, it's easy to see why John Magnier and JP McManus took their £80m profit and got out.'

The Glazers knew all this. So how will they make the much, much more money they believe United can produce? A clue lies in the description, in their takeover offer, of United as not just a club but 'an international brand and a fan base which embodies the passion and excitement of the world's most popular sport [and whose business] encompasses merchandising/retailing, catering, corporate hospitality and media and communications.'

Hefty ticket price rises are certain. 'They know there's 67,500 inside and another 25,000 who want to get in, and even when the stadium capacity goes up to 76,000 next year there'll still be unfulfilled demand, so they can afford to charge more and still sell out,' says one source in the Glazer camp. Expect match programmes and refreshments at Old Trafford to go the same way. 'But the strategy won't be squeezing the pips out of the UK fans.' More lucrative sponsorship deals, which don't provoke fans' ire, are a priority.

Despite protestations a few months ago that selling companies the right to have their name on Old Trafford, or one of its stands, was not part of their thinking, that is now seen as one of the most painless sources of fresh income. 'If someone comes along and says "We want to call it the Shredded Wheat stadium" and are prepared to pay for that, the Glazers would do it,' says one source privy to their plans.

A sale and leaseback of Old Trafford is an option, but might limit their ability to replicate their success in encouraging commercial developments in and around the Buccaneers' stadium. A securitisation deal, where they would borrow against future gate revenue, has also been considered.

'The Glazers see exploiting the United brand overseas through better marketing, especially in Asia and North America, as the surest way to make money,' says one adviser. Joe McLean, a football finance expert with accountants Grant Thornton, says the Glazers' homeland could prove profitable. 'Glazer brings with him valuable knowledge of the American sports scene and could increase Manchester United's penetration and profitability in this market'.

However, the club has been pursuing a 'leverage our global fanbase' strategy in just these places since the mid-Nineties, without much success. In addition, many other English and European clubs are now trying to establish themselves in these continents through summer tours and selling branded content to fee-paying subscribers through a variety of new media. United's on-field slump may deter more fickle foreign fans.

Expanding merchandising sales abroad is another priority but, as one associate admits, 'if you walk along the Patpong Road in Bangkok, you don't find an official Man Utd shirt on sale anywhere. Piracy is a huge problem because most people in Asia will buy an imitation off a market stall rather than a full-priced real one by mail order. Yes, the United brand may be under-exploited but how do you police it in places like China?.'

The 'leprechaun' and his sons are aware that if United could sell its own TV rights, that would deliver much of the serious extra profit. One of the shareholders who is in the process of selling to the family is keen that they do exactly that, even if it means conflict with other Premier League clubs and the game's governing bodies.

If they do - and they are interested in trying to do so at least abroad under the Premier League's post-2007 TV deal - that could lead to a dramatic reshaping of both English and European football, with a new Super League of clubs such as United, Real Madrid and AC Milan. Sources say the Glazers would welcome this. However, Premier League chief executive Richard Scudamore insists that a United breakaway is'impossible'. Domestic rivals may respond with a boycott, warns a rival club chairman.

The Glazers' advisers insist that their experience with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers makes them well suited to finally unleashing United's full commercial might. 'They will bring some fresh thinking and identify new income streams,' says a source. The Shredded Wheat Theatre of Dreams may await us.