THE EMPIRE IS CRUMBLING

All empires crumble from within, usually when prolonged success distorts the leader's vision. Small mistakes multiply, sometimes becoming big ones. Past success is presented as a guarantee of present wisdom until the truth of the situation becomes apparent.

Whether he is willing to admit it or not, Sir Alex Ferguson faced that reality on Wednesday night after his Manchester United team had failed to match opponents they would normally be expected to sweep aside. The end of an empire is a compelling sight, particularly when the imperium was designed and constructed by a man of such singular gifts and temperament as Ferguson. For the observer, all sorts of emotions come into play as the process of entropy begins to exert its destructive effect. Those emotions are as nothing, however, compared with the feelings that will be churning within the United manager's own mind as he looks ahead and recognises that, finally, his days at Old Trafford are numbered.

Driven by a man who will certainly not want to leave the scene of his greatest triumphs with head bowed, United are unlikely to give up the chase. Between now and the end of the season they may well match Chelsea's performance stride for stride, in terms of wins and points. But the core of the side does not seem a firm enough base from which to launch the kind of assault that withered other opponents, not least because - and this was particularly evident in the direct comparison with Benfica - they have fallen below the standards of physical fitness to be found at Europe's leading clubs.

The team's core should still be founded on the strength of Jaap Stam, but Ferguson's inability to absorb a minor and typically Dutch act of independence from a central defender who has shown no signs of disruptive activity at PSV, Lazio or Milan surely constituted one of the markers on the path of decline. Others included the bitterness surrounding the departure of David Beckham, whose fame brought out Ferguson's worst instincts; the row with JP McManus and John Magnier over the ownership of a racehorse, making possible Malcolm Glazer's takeover of the club; the inability to persuade Rio Ferdinand to concentrate on justifying a world-record transfer fee for a defender; the decision not only to invite Carlos Queiroz back into the fold but to give him greater powers over training and tactics; and the failure to make adequate provision for the inevitable waning of the powers of midfield enforcer Roy Keane, the team's single most important figure.

By the start of next season the landscape of English football will look very different. In all likelihood both the national team and the country's most famous club will have new managers. Martin O'Neill is the firm favourite with the bookmakers, and probably with the fans, too, but the Glazers may want an internationally renowned figure and it is perhaps only a disinclination to spend more time dealing with England's celebrity culture that would dissuade Sven-Goran Eriksson from moving his base of operations from Soho Square to Old Trafford. That, or a better offer from Real Madrid.

As Ferguson nears the exit he can look back on achievements he will never see surpassed. It would be unwise, however, to expect him to go quietly.